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Revised Outlook: Average Hurricane Season

The forecast now calls for a near-average season with a total of 14 named storms.
June 5, 2018

Dr. Philip Klotzbach, research scientist at Colorado State University (CSU) details an updated outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast now calls for a near-average season with a total of 14 named storms: six hurricanes, of which two are expected to be "major" hurricanes. This prediction is a slight lowering from CSU's initial outlook in early April, which called for 14 named storms, and seven hurricanes, of which would be "major." The primary reason for a reduced seasonal forecast (compared with its earlier 2018 outlook), is due to anomalous cooling of the tropical Atlantic over the past couple of months.

CSU does not anticipate a significant El Niño event for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. At this point, the meteorological team believes that the most likely outcome is neutral conditions for the next several months. El Niños tend to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in upper-level winds that tear apart hurricanes as they to develop.

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