The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season which began June 1 will be fairly active with six to nine hurricanes, five of which may become major storms, according to government forecasters. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hedged its bets when issuing that projection. NOAA said there is a 65 percent probability of an above-normal season, but in the same announcement it also said there is a 25 percent chance of a near-normal one.

Meanwhile, William Gray and Philip Klotzbach, the hurricane gurus at Colorado State University, did not attempt to “spin” their prediction. They say that the season’s storm activity will be well above average, with 15 named Atlantic storms, including eight that will reach hurricane strength. They also said there is an “above average probability” of a major hurricane hitting land along the U.S. coast. Gray and Klotzbach helped stir up controversy over the usefulness of long-range forecasts by overestimating storm activity during the previous two hurricane seasons.

What It Means to Agents:  People in the coastal states should always be prepared for hurricanes! The fact that expert forecasters have issued differing predictions as to how many storms will occur should not give anyone a false sense of security. After all, the main usefulness of the annual forecasts should be to remind everyone that hurricane season is upon us, and that whether six or 26 hurricanes are expected, it’s always smart to heed warnings and be prepared.

Remember: all it takes is one Katrina!

NOAA Forecast
 
Colorado State University Forecast

June 3, 2008