If it seemed to you that in some years hurricanes seemed to follow the same path, it turns out you’re right. The U.S. coastline is more vulnerable to storms during busy hurricane seasons because of atmospheric steering currents that tend to push storms in its general direction – as in the seasons of 2004 and 2005 during which five hurricanes made land fall in each of those years.

Also, in active years storms tend to form deeper in the tropics, giving them a better chance of making it across the Atlantic. But active seasons do not always mean disaster. In 1958, a year climatologically similar to this one, seven hurricanes, five of them major, developed but none struck the U.S. There are forecasts that this year there will be up to 14 hurricanes and because of its 1,200 miles of coastline, Florida is by far the most vulnerable state. Historically, 40 percent of all U.S. hurricanes and major hurricanes hit Florida. Climatologists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University have calculated the odds of at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast at 76 percent, and the chance of a major hurricane striking Florida at 21 percent – both significantly higher than average.

Risk Up During Busy Hurricane Seasons (Fort Lauderdale FL Sun-Sentinel 6/21/10)

June 30, 2010